Monday, 28 March 2011

Election predictions - Quebec

In Quebec there are 75 ridings, 49 that went Bloc Quebecois last time around, 14 Liberal, 10 Conservative, one NDP, and one Independent.  In a by-election the Conservatives picked up one more to increase their seat count to 11.  The Bloc Quebecois should win at least half the seats, while the Tories will fight to hold what they have and the Liberals could gain or lose but barring some seismic shift which is not impossible in Quebec, there likely won't be too many changes while the NDP will win between 0-2 seats.  By region, Eastern Quebec favours the Bloc, Appalaches-Chaudieres is the one Tory stronghold left, Eastern Townships may not be a separtist stronghold but the weakness of Liberal and Tory support means the Bloc should hold most of these.  For the Montreal Suburbs, most should be easy Bloc Quebecois with a few of the more densely populated and more diverse ridings could be competitive.  The Outaoais should be a battleground, solidly Bloc in Central Quebec, while in Quebec City the refusal to fund the arena could put some or all of the Tory seats in jeopardy while Northern Quebec should favour the Bloc with Tories competitive in the Saguenay region.  On the Island of Montreal, the Bloc should dominate the East end, the Liberals the West end while a few battleground in between

Bloc Quebecois:

Safe Bloc Quebecois: Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine, Rimouski-Neigette-Temiscouata-Les Basques, Richmond-Arthabaska, Bas-Richelieu-Nicolet-Becancour, Compton-Stanstead, Shefford, Sherbrooke, Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot, Drummond, Saint Jean, Beauharnois-Salaberry, Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Chateaguay-Saint Constant, Longueuil-Pierre Boucher, St. Bruno-St. Hubert, Vercheres-Les Patriotes, Chambly-Borduas, Laurier-Saint Marie, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie, Hochelaga, La Pointe-de-l'Ile, Marc-Aurele-Fortin, Terrebonne-Blainville, Riviere du Nord, Laurentides-Labelle, Rivieres-des-Milles-Iles, Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel, Abitibi-Temiscamingue, Montcalm, Repentigny, Berthier-Maskinoge, Joliette, Trois Rivieres, Saint Maurice-Champlain, Quebec, Louis-Hebert, Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Cote Nord, Manicouagan, Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou (39)

Vulnerable Bloc ridings (those won in 2008, not necessarily held now):

Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Metapadia - Favours the Bloc Quebecois but former MNA Nancy Charest could allow for a Liberal upset in this traditionally separtist riding

Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup - The Tories picked this up in the by-election but are in a tough fight with the Bloc Quebecois who want to retake this.

Brome-Missiquoi - With the Bloc MP stepping down, the Anglophone population at 15%, this is one of the few rural Quebec ridings the Liberals have a decent shot at taking.

Saint Lambert - Favours Bloc Quebecois, if they can get some wind in their sails, the Liberals could win this.  Laval and Alfred-Pellan would also fall under this category.

Jeanne Le Ber and Ahuntsic - Extremely tight races in the last three elections and is likely to be again.  whichever way they go, it will likely be a long night for both the Bloc and Liberal candidates.

Gatineau - A three way race between the Bloc Quebecois, Liberals, and NDP with any of the three having a decent shot of winning.

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord - If the Tories make any gains in Quebec, this would be it, but unless they can get in the upper 20s province wide, I expect this to stay Bloc.


Safe Liberal ridings - Lac-St. Louis, Pierrefonds-Dollards, Saint Laurent-Cartierville, Mount Royal, Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine, La Salle-Emard, Westmount-Ville Marie, Bourassa, St. Leonard-St. Michel (9 seats)

Likely Liberal - Honore-Mercier, Laval-les Iles, Hull-Aylmer

Toss-ups or nail biter races: Brossard-La Prairie and Papineau (Justin Trudeau's riding so cheers for those who hate the Trudeau name if he loses, tears for those who support the Trudeau brand).


Guaranteed Tory win: Beauce

Win as long as they stay above 15% province wide: Levis-Bellechasse, Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudieres, Megantic-L'Erable.

Lean Tory but somewhat vulnerable: Pontiac (both Liberals and Bloc have equal chances here), Louis-St. Laurent, and Jonquiere-Alma

Toss-ups: Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint Charles and Roberval-Lac Saint Jean

Tough re-election battle: Beauport-Limoliou


Outremont will likely be a tight Liberal-NDP battle as former Chretien cabinet minister Martin Cauchon tries to return it to its Liberal roots and NDP heavyweight Thomas Mulclair tries to keep it in the NDP fold.


Portneuf-Jacques Cartier will probably go Bloc Quebecois although Andre Arthur may hang on, but I wouldn't count on it as independents rarely win three elections in a row.

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