Tuesday, 22 March 2011

Budget and Upcoming election

The government has brought down its budget and all three opposition parties have said they would oppose it, thus an election looks like a near certainty.  As for the budget it didn't contain a poison pill, but neither did it fully satisfy the opposition demands thus if one wanted to avoid a budget there was plenty of reason to, but if one really wants one that could easily support it.  Either way, all parties including the government have plenty of reasons to not want an election, but at the same time avoiding one carries its own risks.  For the Conservatives they are knocking on the door of a majority so it might seem silly not to go, but with all the news in the past few weeks of lack of ethics, the government is vulnerable, never mind past campaigns haven't always resulted in results being similiar to pre-election polls.  For the Liberals, their poll numbers are atrocious thus every reason to avoid one as they trail the government by several points, trail in Ontario which has in the past been fairly favourable to the Liberals, but they would look like even bigger hyprocrits if they backed a government they say is unfit to govern, never mind elections are unpredictable and Ignatieff may have negative views by many of the public, but most people's opinions of him are pretty shallow and can easily change during the course of the campaign.  For the Bloc Quebecois, the polls may look good, but their prospects of making big gains are very low as there are some seats that will never go for them and as we saw in 2006 and 2008, the Quebec vote is quite fluid and can easily change during the course of the campaign going up as it did in 2008 or down as it did in 2006.  For the NDP, the leader's health is a concern as well as their somewhat lacklustre polls, but considering your typical NDP supporter hates the Tories even more than your typical Liberal supporter, supporting the government could hurt them in the long-run.  Anyways I will give my seat projection on the day before the election as well as comments on the events as they happen.  At this point anything from a Liberal minority to Tory majority is possible.

No comments:

Post a Comment