First election predictions - Atlantic Canada

It is still early in the election and a lot can change between now and election day.  So this below looks at what seats each party has locked up and for the battlegrounds who has the edge and what are the chances.  This is meant as a starting point and each Monday I will update this based on changes that occur.  What I don't update is where no change has happened.

Newfoundland & Labrador

Last election, the Liberals won 6 seats and the NDP one seat.  Of the four seats off the Avalon peninsula (Labrador, Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte, Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor, Random-Burin-St. George's) these have long been Liberal strongholds with few exceptions and although I expect the Tories to do better than in 2008, I still expect the Liberals to easily hold these four.  In Avalon, the Liberals picked this up due to William's ABC Campaign, but with Danny Williams no longer premier and the desire to at least have one member on the side of government this is likely to a be another battleground.  At the moment, I would give the Liberals the edge, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories retake this.  For St. John's South-Mount Pearl, this was a traditional Tory seat, but last time around was a tight NDP-Liberal fight.  No doubt the NDP will have their eyes on this, but with the Tories set to run former provincial cabinet minister Loyola Sullivan and many ex-Tories who switched due to the ABC campaign, the Tories could also be a factor, although I still think an NDP or Liberal win far more likely, nevertheless I expect the Tories to do much better than the dismal 12% they got last time around.  In St. John's East, this may have once been a Tory stronghold, but Jack Harris has enough popularity that I expect this to stay NDP.

Nova Scotia

In the last election, the Liberals won 5 seats, Tories 3 seats, NDP 2 seats, and one Independent.  In the case of the two Cape Breton ridings (Cape Breton-Canso and Sydney-Victoria), I expect the Liberals to easily hold these two while despite the Tory strength in Mainland Rural Nova Scotia, I expect the Liberals to also hold Kings-Hants, while they should hold Halifax West too.  Dartmouth-Cole Harbour leans Liberal, but an NDP pickup is possible here however.  For the Tories, I expect they will hold Central Nova and Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, while West Nova and South Shore-St. Margaret's are likely to be tough fights with the Liberals the main opponent in West Nova and the NDP in South Shore-St. Margaret's.  I would give the Tories a slight edge in both ridings, but this could easily change.  For the NDP, they should easily hold Sackville-Eastern Shore while Halifax favours the NDP but the sagging popularity of the provincial government could make this susceptible to a Liberal pickup.

Prince Edward Island

Last election, the Liberals took 3 seats, while the Tories won their first seat in PEI in over 20 years ending the long Tory drought on the island.  Cardigan should be an easy Liberal hold since their incumbent is running for re-election and they won by large margins last time around.  Charlottetown went solidly Liberal in the past three elections, but so did Egmont in 2004 and 2006 and like Egmont last election, the incumbent is retiring.  Now considering this one is more urban and includes much of the civil service, I believe it will be tougher for the Tories to take this, still I don't think the Liberals have a lock on it.  Leans Liberal, but not locked up.  Malpeque was a close one and considering that Wayne Easter has stepped on the Tories' toes several times, you can bet they will throw whatever they can at this riding to help ensure he gets defeated.  Nonetheless with the incumbency advantage and the slight Liberal tilt of this riding, he still stands a good chance at holding it, although it certainly could go Tory.  In Egmont, the Tories won by only 55 votes thus making it look like an easy Liberal target, but with their member Gail Shea being a cabinet minister and the fact many in PEI want at least one member on the government benches, especially if the Tories win a majority, I suspect she will hold her riding as long as the Tories remain well ahead in the polls nationally.  Off course if the Liberals close the gap, then its a whole different story in which case I suspect this would return to the Liberal fold.

New Brunswick

Last election, the Tories won 6 seats, Liberals 3 seats, and NDP one seat.  The three ridings they won in the 2006 (New Brunswick Southwest, Tobique-Mactaquac, Fundy-Royal) were won by last margins last time around and are largely rural, Anglophone, and Protestant which means solidly Tory.  Of the three pickups last time around, Fredericton is probably the least vulnerable while Miramichi being somewhat more vulnerable but still likely Tory, while Saint John is likely to a close match up as in the past two elections.  For the Liberals, Beausejour should be an easy hold, while Madawaska-Restigouche is somewhat vulnerable since despite its predominately Francophone demographics as Madawaska County has often voted Tory both provincially and federally never mind the Tories recruited Bernard Valcourt.  The problem for them is this riding is it seems to move more in line with the poll numbers in Quebec rather than Atlantic Canada where the Tories aren't doing so well, mind you neither are the Liberals too so that would suggest the results would be similiar to last time around.  Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe has traditionally been a Liberal stronghold but in the past three elections the Tories have chipped away at the advantage.  The maybe didn't get Bernard Lord to run which would have made this a sure fire win for the Tories, but that doesn't mean they cannot win it, it will just be more of a battle.  Acadie-Bathurst has gone solidly NDP in the past four elections and should as long as Yvon Godin is their MP.

Coalition vs. Issues

A lot of talk has been on the issue of whether there will be a coalition or not and also accursing Harper of being a hypocrit of proposing a similiar one in 2004.  No doubt this is an important question, but it shouldn't dominate the election campaign.  Considering the bad blood and ideological gulf between the Tories vs. the Bloc Quebecois and NDP, I see such coalition is out of the question.  Likewise, while a Liberal-NDP coalition back by the Bloc Quebecois is possible, I somehow doubt they will attempt this unless the election is really close as the damage it would do to the Liberals would be too risky in the long run and despite the fact the Liberal Party has made more than their share of dumb mistakes, I cannot see them being this stupid.  I could be wrong off course, but that is my guess.  What it really comes down to though is what does each party stand for and what policies do they want to adopt.  This is what should matter to voters when they head to the polls.

The Tories want a majority which is understable, however they need to tell Canadians what policies they want to adopt and why they need a majority to achieve these.

The Liberals want to return to power which is also understandable, but they need to tell us what exactly they plan to do if they form government and how they would do things differently than the current government and why this is a better alternative.

The Bloc Quebecois cannot win the next election so they need to elaborate on the policies they want adopted and how electing more BQ members would help them achieve this regardless of who wins the next election.

Unless your are completely delusional, there is no chance of the NDP winning the next election, but that doesn't mean they cannot have an impact.  After all CPP and medicare came about largely due to the strong NDP presence in the 60s.  They need to articulate what policies they want whomever wins to adopt and what the expect in order for the governing party go gain their support on certain issues.

The Green Party will be lucky if they win just one seat, nonetheless the more votes they get, the more likely other parties are to pay attention to their policies, so they need to state what policies they will advocate.

We all have different issues we want addressed and no doubt you will never satisfy everyone and on any given issue some will agree and others will disagree.  The important thing is the issues are discussed and then one can vote for who has the best platform.  I also think in a democracy it is important that all views including controversial ones are discussed.  Running large deficits, raising income taxes, nationalizing major industries, scrapping free trade, outlawing abortion, scrapping bilingualism, bringing back the death penalty, increasing private sector involvement in health care, and cutting immigration levels are all controversial policies no party wants to touch, yet on most the issues mentioned above 30-40% agree with such policies.  I disagree with the majority advocated above but that doesn't mean I think all parties should oppose those policies.  In fact it would make sense to have one party on each of those  support it so long as they didn't win assuming public opinion is where most polls it says they are.  Elections are not just about winning, they are also about advocating certain ideas and promoting them in parliament even if unpopular.

And they're off

The election has now started and is set for May 2nd.  During the next 5 weeks we will off course hear lots on why each party deserves your vote and why the other is unfit to govern.  At this point not much has been said in policy.  The main issue on the first few days is that of the coalition.  The Liberals have ruled it out which was a smart move as had the dogged them the whole campaign, Harper probably would have easily won his majority.  After all, during this period was the only time he polled over 45% nationally and over 50% in Ontario so it makes sense he would want to use this as an issue to beat the Liberals with.  Yes they are constitutionally legitimate, but at the end of the day what matters, is, is it morally legitimate.  If a coalition is formed that includes the party that has the most seats or the opposition party comes close to winning it may have some legitimacy with the public, but when one loses as badly as the Liberals did in 2008, it is a tough sell.  Britain may have one now, but it also includes the party with the most seats and the prime-minister comes from the party with the most seats.  This was not the case in the proposed 2008 coalition.  With the Liberals taking this off the table, this could actually backfire if the Tories appear desperate.  The Bloc Quebecois and the NDP brought up how Harper proposed one in 2004 and this may make him look like a hypocrit, but considering the bad blood and ideological differences between the Tories and those two parties, I cannot see Harper forming a coalition with either of them.  In terms of polls, the Tories have come out strong being on the cusp of a majority and ahead of the Liberals in all polls in Ontario.  Even in Atlantic Canada they appear fairly strong and are back to 2008 levels in Quebec, still a lot can happen during the course of an election and considering that the Tories have dominated the airwaves in advertising it remains to be seen if they can hold or even improve on those numbers.  The NDP and Bloc Quebecois are doing okay while the Liberal numbers are atrocious.  Some may wonder why the heck they brought down the government considering their bad numbers.  Certainly they have a steep hill to climb, still I believe a weak Liberal minority is plausible as is a solid Tory majority.  Elections are after all unpredictable and anyone who says campaigns don't matter is completely wrong.  Many Liberals think that once the public sees Ignatieff, they will like him and support him being PM.  While it is true that the people I have met who know him personally say he is a very likeable person, he doesn't come across very well on television and considering few will meet him in person, I am bit skeptical of this.  After all, how someone appears on television is quite different than in person.  I have also heard Harper is far more likeable too in person than he appears on television.  Nonetheless a strong Liberal campaign and a number of Tory blunders may do the job, but considering this is Ignatieff's first election campaign and Harper's fourth it seems more likely that Ignatieff would make a major blunder as those seem to be far more in common in first campaigns than those who have ran multiple ones.  The first two weeks probably won't draw a lot of public attention thus I don't suspect the poll numbers will move much.  Once we get close to the debates and certainly after is when you will see movement in the poll numbers.  I will continue to update this on a regular basis as well as also mention the main policies as presented during the campaign and issues discussed.

When and how the government falls

In all likelihood the government will fall within the next 24 hours and within the next 48 hours, Stephen Harper will visit Rideau Hall and ask for parliament to be dissolved setting the path for an election on either May 2nd or May 9th.  The opposition would like the government to fall on the issue of ethics.  After all this would be the first time any government in any commonwealth country has been found in contempt of parliament whereas the Conservatives would probably like the government to fall on the budget which they believe most Canadians either support or at least don't dislike enough to feel it warrants an election.  Considering how disengaged Canadians are, I doubt what issue they fall on will make too big a difference in the results, however I suspect both issues amongst others will come up during the campaign.  The opposition would like to portray this government as autocratic, disrespectful of democracy, and corrupt.  By contrast the Conservatives want to portray themselves as good economic managers who managed to take Canada through the recession relatively unscathed unlike many other developed countries such as the US and much of Europe who are in major trouble.  True one could argue the contempt of parliament was a charade as the opposition was going to find the government in contempt no matter what they did and it was driven by political opportunism not genuine principle.  By the same time one could argue Canada's strength is due to the economic policies of the Chretien/Martin government and their strong fiscal policies as well as refusal to deregulate the banking industry.  However, politics is determined more by perception than reality thus I suspect the ethics issue won't help the Tories and the economy is probably their strongest suit, but how it will play out still remains to seen.  For one thing, this is Ignatieff's first campaign so how well he does and the other parties depends heavily on what type of campaign he runs.  If he does better than expectations, he may just end of winning a minority government as many Liberal strategist believe, but if he makes a number of major gaffes which is not uncommon for leaders in their first campaign, he must just hand Harper a majority on a silver platter.  I think anything from a Liberal minority to Conservative majority is possible, but I will avoid making any predictions until we get closer to election day as a lot can happen during the course of a campaign.  I do promise that I will give my seat projections one day before the election.  As the campaign progresses I will discuss the major issues and even give my opinion on the issues without endorsing any party or candidate.  On the issue of a coalition, I will discuss that at a later time although I do think regardless of how prominitely it plays in the campaign it should be mentioned.  In terms of polls, I will focus more on trends rather than each poll as we will be getting so many that analyzing each one seems counterproductive.

Budget and Upcoming election

The government has brought down its budget and all three opposition parties have said they would oppose it, thus an election looks like a near certainty.  As for the budget it didn't contain a poison pill, but neither did it fully satisfy the opposition demands thus if one wanted to avoid a budget there was plenty of reason to, but if one really wants one that could easily support it.  Either way, all parties including the government have plenty of reasons to not want an election, but at the same time avoiding one carries its own risks.  For the Conservatives they are knocking on the door of a majority so it might seem silly not to go, but with all the news in the past few weeks of lack of ethics, the government is vulnerable, never mind past campaigns haven't always resulted in results being similiar to pre-election polls.  For the Liberals, their poll numbers are atrocious thus every reason to avoid one as they trail the government by several points, trail in Ontario which has in the past been fairly favourable to the Liberals, but they would look like even bigger hyprocrits if they backed a government they say is unfit to govern, never mind elections are unpredictable and Ignatieff may have negative views by many of the public, but most people's opinions of him are pretty shallow and can easily change during the course of the campaign.  For the Bloc Quebecois, the polls may look good, but their prospects of making big gains are very low as there are some seats that will never go for them and as we saw in 2006 and 2008, the Quebec vote is quite fluid and can easily change during the course of the campaign going up as it did in 2008 or down as it did in 2006.  For the NDP, the leader's health is a concern as well as their somewhat lacklustre polls, but considering your typical NDP supporter hates the Tories even more than your typical Liberal supporter, supporting the government could hurt them in the long-run.  Anyways I will give my seat projection on the day before the election as well as comments on the events as they happen.  At this point anything from a Liberal minority to Tory majority is possible.

I'm Back

Its been a while since I last blogged and since I forget my password and everything associated, I decided to start a new one.  Unlike my last one, I will only blog during provincial, federal, as well as US elections and this will be a non-partisan one.  I may endorse or oppose certain policies, but I will neither endorse nor oppose any candidate, party, or leader.  Instead I will try to give a neutral look at the political events occurring.  In order to ensure my blog is widely read, I will be a member of Blogging Canadians at http://www.bloggingcanadians.ca/ which has blogs of all political persuasions including non-partisan. In today's environment most blogs just parrot the partisan lines of each party, otherwise blindly opposing everything their opponents support and supporting everything their chosen party does.  I believe all parties have good and bad policies and more importantly believe that if we are to build a better country it requires a willingness to listen and respect those with different views.  I also love to make predictions on how certain policies will affect voter intentions as well as look at both the advantages and disadvantages of each policy as almost everthing has an advantage and a disadvantage.  I welcome comments of all political persuasions, but will delete any spam, racist remarks, swearing, and insults.  This is for those who want to have an intelligent discussion on the issues at hand.  It will be more active during elections and when the weather is crummy here in Toronto (I like being outside when nice although being just above freezing and about to snow tonight, that may not come for a while).